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Pricing model performance and the two-pass cross-sectional regression methodology

机译:定价模型性能和两次横截面回归方法

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摘要

Since Black, Jensen, and Scholes (1972) and Fama and MacBeth (1973), the two-pass cross-sectional regression (CSR) methodology has become the most popular approach for estimating and testing asset pricing models. Statistical inference with this method is typically conducted under the assumption that the models are correctly specified, i.e., expected returns are exactly linear in asset betas. This can be a problem in practice since all models are, at best, approximations of reality and are likely to be subject to a certain degree of misspecification. We propose a general methodology for computing misspecification-robust asymptotic standard errors of the risk premia estimates. We also derive the asymptotic distribution of the sample CSR R2 and develop a test of whether two competing beta pricing models have the same population R2. This provides a formal alternative to the common heuristic of simply comparing the R2 estimates in evaluating relative model performance. Finally, we provide an empirical application which demonstrates the importance of our new results when applied to a variety of asset pricing models.
机译:自从Black,Jensen和Scholes(1972)以及Fama和MacBeth(1973)以来,两遍横截面回归(CSR)方法已成为估计和测试资产定价模型的最流行方法。使用此方法进行统计推断通常是在假设模型正确指定的前提下进行的,即预期收益在资产beta中是完全线性的。这在实践中可能是一个问题,因为所有模型充其量只能是现实的近似值,并且很可能会受到一定程度的错误指定。我们提出了一种通用的方法来计算风险溢价估计值的错误指定-鲁棒渐近标准误差。我们还得出了样本CSR R2的渐近分布,并开发了两个竞争性Beta定价模型是否具有相同总体R2的检验。这为简单的比较R2估计值以评估相对模型性能的普通启发式方法提供了形式上的替代方案。最后,我们提供了一个经验应用程序,该应用程序证明了将我们的新结果应用于各种资产定价模型的重要性。

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