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IV-Based Cointegration Testing in Dependent Panels with Time-Varying Variance

机译:具有时变方差的相依面板中基于IV的协整检验

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摘要

While the limiting null distributions of cointegration tests are invariant to a certain amount of conditional heteroskedasticity as long as global homoskedasticity conditions are fulfilled, they are certainly affected when the innovations exhibit time-varying volatility. Worse yet, distortions from single units accumulate in panels, where one must anyway pay special attention to dependence among cross-sectional units, be it time-dependent or not. To obtain a panel cointegration test robust to both global heteroskedasticity and cross-unit dependence, we start by adapting the nonlinear instruments method proposed for the Dickey-Fuller test by Chang (J of Econometrics 110, 261--292) to an error-correction testing framework. We show that IV-based testing of the null of no error-correction in individual equations results in asymptotic standard normality of the test statistic as long as the t-type statistics are computed with White heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. Remarkably, the result holds even in the presence of endogenous regressors, irrespective of the number of integrated covariates, and for any variance profile. Furthermore, a test for the null of no cointegration---in effect, a joint test against no error correction in any equation of each unit---retains the nice properties of the univariate tests. In panels with fixed cross-sectional dimension, both types of test statistics from individual units are shown to be asymptotically independent even in the presence of correlation or cointegration across units, leading to a panel test statistic robust to cross-unit dependence and unconditional heteroskedasticity. The tests perform well in panels of usual dimensions with innovations exhibiting variance breaks and a factor structure.
机译:只要满足整体同方差条件,协整检验的极限零分布对于一定数量的条件异方差不变,但是当创新表现出随时间变化的波动性时,它们肯定会受到影响。更糟糕的是,单个单元的失真会累积在面板中,无论如何,无论如何,横截面单元之间的依赖性都必须特别注意。为了获得对全局异方差性和跨单元依赖性都鲁棒的面板协整检验,我们首先将由Chang(Econometrics 110,261--292)提出的Dickey-Fuller检验建议的非线性仪器方法进行校正测试框架。我们显示,只要对t型统计量进行怀特异方差一致的标准误差计算,就可以对各个方程式进行无误差校正的零值的基于IV的测试会导致测试统计量的渐近标准正态性。值得注意的是,即使存在内生回归变量,结果也保持不变,而与积分协变量的数量无关,并且对于任何方差分布图。此外,无协整零值的检验(实际上是针对每个单位的任何方程式中没有错误校正的联合检验)保留了单变量检验的优良特性。在具有固定横截面尺寸的面板中,即使在各个单元之间存在相关性或协整关系的情况下,来自单个单元的两种测试统计数据也显示为渐近独立的,从而导致对跨单元依赖性和无条件异方差具有鲁棒性的面板测试统计量。该测试在常规尺寸的面板上表现良好,其创新表现出方差突破和因子结构。

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