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Asymmetric Error Correction Models for the Oil-Gasoline Price Relationship

机译:油气价格关系的非对称误差修正模型

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摘要

The existing literature on price asymmetries does not systematically investigate the sensitivity of the empirical results to the choice of a particular econometric specification. This paper fills this gap by providing a detailed comparison of the three most popular models designed to describe asymmetric price behaviour, namely asymmetric ECM, autoregressive threshold ECM and ECM with threshold cointegration. Each model is estimated on a common monthly dataset for the gasoline markets of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK over the period 1985-2003. All models are able to capture the temporal delay in the reaction of retail prices to changes in spot gasoline and crude oil prices, as well as some evidence of asymmetric behaviour. However, the type of market and the number of countries which are characterized by asymmetric oil-gasoline price relations vary across models. The asymmetric ECM yields some evidence of asymmetry for all countries, mainly at the distribution stage. The threshold ECM strongly rejects the null hypothesis of symmetric price behaviour, particularly in the case of France and Germany. Finally, the ECM with threshold cointegration finds long-run asymmetry for each country in the reaction of retail prices to oil price changes.
机译:价格不对称的现有文献没有系统地研究经验结果对特定计量经济学规范选择的敏感性。本文通过提供三种最流行的模型来填补这一空白,这些模型旨在描述非对称价格行为,即非对称ECM,自回归阈值ECM和具有阈值协整的ECM。每种模型都是根据1985-2003年法国,德国,意大利,西班牙和英国的汽油市场的公共月度数据集估算的。所有模型都能够捕获零售价格对汽油和原油现货价格变化的反应的时间延迟,以及一些不对称行为的证据。但是,以汽油价格关系不对称为特征的市场类型和国家数量因模型而异。不对称的ECM主要在分配阶段为所有国家提供了一些不对称的证据。阈值ECM强烈拒绝对称价格行为的零假设,尤其是在法国和德国的情况下。最后,具有阈值协整的ECM在零售价格对石油价格变化的反应中发现了每个国家的长期不对称性。

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