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Cash holdings in Germany and the demand for 'German' banknotes: What role for cashless payments?

机译:德国的现金持有量和“德国”钞票的需求:无现金支付的作用是什么?

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摘要

This paper models the demand for banknotes issued in Germany. It highlights that all motives for holding banknotes are present in this case. Inter alia, special attention is paid to the role of card payments. For small and large denomination notes we are able to establish meaningful vector error correction models (VECM). The results suggest that the long-run demand for German small denomination notes is mainly driven by domestic transactions and demand from outside the euro area. The transaction motive in the rest of the euro area and non-cash payments are part of the short-term dynamics. The long-run demand for German large denomination notes is mainly driven by foreign demand both from the rest of the euro area and outside the EMU. The global financial crisis led to a one-time increase in the (real) demand for these notes. Our results are in line with estimates according to which the level and dynamics of banknote demand are largely determined by foreign demand. It was not possible to setup a VECM for medium denominations for which we resort to a singleequation approach. Card payments do not play any role for the medium and large denomination categories.
机译:本文模拟了德国发行的纸币的需求。它强调了在这种情况下存在所有保持纸币的动机。除其他外,特别注意卡支付的作用。对于大小面额的纸币,我们能够建立有意义的矢量误差校正模型(VECM)。结果表明,对德国小面额纸币的长期需求主要是由国内交易和欧元区以外的需求所驱动。欧元区其他地区的交易动机和非现金支付是短期动力的一部分。德国大面额纸币的长期需求主要是受到来自欧元区其他地区和欧洲货币联盟(EMU)以外的外国需求的驱动。全球金融危机导致对这些票据的(实际)需求一度增加。我们的结果与估计相符,据估计,纸币需求的水平和动态很大程度上取决于外国需求。对于中等面额,我们无法采用单方程法来设置VECM。卡支付对于中型和大型面额类别不起作用。

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