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Network hierarchy in Kirman's ant model: fund investment can create systemic risk

机译:Kirman蚂蚁模型中的网络层次结构:基金投资可能会产生系统性风险

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摘要

Kirman's ant model has been used to characterize the expectation formation of financial investors who are prone to herding. The model's original version suffers from the problem of N-dependence: its ability to replicate the statistical features of financial returns vanishes once the system size N is increased. In a generalized version of the ant model, the network structure connecting agents turns out to determine whether or not the model is N-dependent. We investigate a class of hierarchical networks in the generalized model that presumably reflect the institutional heterogeneity of financial markets. These network structures do overcome the problem of N-dependence, but at the same time they also increase system-wide volatility. Thus network structure becomes an auxiliary source of volatility in addition to the behavioral heterogeneity of interacting agents.
机译:柯尔曼(Kirman)的蚂蚁模型已被用来刻画易于成群的金融投资者的期望形成。该模型的原始版本存在N依赖性问题:一旦系统大小N增加,其复制财务收益统计特征的能力就会消失。在蚂蚁模型的通用版本中,连接代理的网络结构最终确定模型是否与N相关。我们研究了广义模型中的一类层次网络,该网络大概反映了金融市场的制度异质性。这些网络结构确实克服了N依赖性问题,但同时也增加了系统范围内的波动性。因此,网络结构除了相互作用代理的行为异质性外,还成为波动的辅助来源。

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