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Stepping stones versus dead end jobs: Exits from temporary contracts in Italy after the 2003 reform

机译:踏脚石与死胡同的工作:2003年改革后意大利的临时合同退出

摘要

In this paper we study labor market transitions out of temporary jobs in Italy focussing on an interesting period of the Italian recent history: the one immediately following the last labor market reform aimed at flexibilizing and liberalizing the Italian labor market by a widespread use of temporary work arrangements in 2003, and immediately preceding the economic downturn starting in the second half of 2007. The data-set used is the 2004-2007 IT-SILC individual panel. We apply a discrete-time duration analysis and estimate a competing-risk model for assessing to which extent, and for whom, starting a temporary job after 2004 results within a 3-years span in a stepping stone to permanent employment rather than a dead end out of the labor market or in precarious jobs. We find that temporary contracts have a positive impact only on men's transitions to permanent employment. School leavers, workers in the South, as well as women, are instead rather penalized after a temporary job. They have an higher probability to remain trapped in temporary contracts than men and an higher probability of exiting the labour market. In particular, school leavers entering the labour market with a temporary contract experience relatively high exit-rates to non-employment just after the first year of the contract.
机译:在本文中,我们研究了意大利从临时工作过渡到劳动力市场的过程,重点是意大利近代历史上一段有趣的时期:上一次劳动力市场改革之后的紧接着的一个旨在通过广泛使用临时工作来灵活化和开放意大利劳动力市场的改革计划是在2003年进行的,并且紧接在2007年下半年开始的经济衰退之前。所使用的数据集是2004-2007年IT-SILC独立小组。我们应用离散时间持续时间分析并评估竞争风险模型,以评估在2004年之后开始为3年时间跨度工作的范围和对象,在3年跨度内为正式就业而不是死胡同打下了基础退出劳动力市场或不稳定的工作。我们发现临时合同仅对男性向永久就业的过渡有积极影响。离校生,南方的工人以及妇女在临时工作后反而会受到惩罚。与男性相比,他们更有可能被困在临时合同中,退出劳动力市场的可能性也更高。特别是,刚签订临时合同进入劳动力市场的离校生在合同第一年之后就经历了相对较高的失业率。

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