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Test procedures for unit roots in time series with level shifts at unknown time

机译:时间序列中单位根的测试程序,未知时间的水平位移

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摘要

Two types of unit root tests which accommodate a structural level shift at a known point in time are extended to the situation where the break date is unknown. It is shown that for any estimator for the break date the tests have the same asymptotic distribution as the corresponding tests under the known break date assumption. Different estimators of the break date are compared in a Monte Carlo experiment and a recommendation for choosing the break date in small samples is given. It is also shown that ignoring the fact that a break has occurred and applying a standard unit root test may lead to substantial size distortion and total loss of power. Example series from the Nelson-Plosser data set are used to illustrate the performance of our tests.
机译:适应已知时间点的结构水平转换的两种类型的单位根测试扩展到了中断日期未知的情况。结果表明,对于任何已知的休息日估计量,在已知的休息日假设下,测试的渐近分布与相应测试的渐近分布相同。在蒙特卡洛实验中比较了休息日的不同估计量,并给出了在小样本中选择休息日的建议。还显示出忽略破裂已经发生的事实并应用标准的单位根测试可能会导致较大的尺寸失真和总功率损耗。 Nelson-Plosser数据集的示例系列用于说明我们的测试性能。

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