Using a CGE model, PRCGEM, with an updated 2002 I/O table, this paper explores how earnings will be affected in each of 40 separate industries across 31 regions (or 8 regional blocks) of China for the period 2002u201307. Labour movement between regions within China is considered. It is found that the direct contribution of WTO membership is small to the whole economy in terms of growth and development. Real GDP will rise only 6.48 per cent (5.6 per cent) in the pure WTO short-run (long-run) shock. Full economic structure change besides WTO shock makes regional output better-off, especially the coastal regions where the economies are well established. Regional labour movement increases by 69.2 per cent in the long-run closure of full economic structural change during the transition period. When regional labour movement is considered, it is found that the Gini coefficient is slightly decreased.
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机译:本文使用带有更新的2002 I / O表的CGE模型PRCGEM,探讨了2002 u201307期间中国31个地区(或8个地区)的40个独立行业中的每个行业的收入将受到怎样的影响。考虑了中国地区之间的劳动力流动。可以发现,就增长和发展而言,入世对全球经济的直接贡献很小。在纯粹的WTO短期(长期)冲击中,实际GDP将仅增长6.48%(5.6%)。除WTO冲击外,全面的经济结构变化使地区产出更好,尤其是经济发达的沿海地区。在过渡时期长期封闭全面经济结构变化的情况下,区域劳动力流动增加了69.2%。当考虑区域劳动力流动时,发现基尼系数略有下降。
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