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Announcing an increase in the state pension age and the recession: Which mattered more for expected retirement ages?

机译:宣布国家养老金年龄和经济衰退的增加:对于预期的退休年龄,哪个更重要?

摘要

In March of 2010, the Irish government announced that the age at which the state pension is paid would be raised to 66 in 2014, 67 in 2021 and 68 in 2028. Also during 2010, the economic news became increasingly bad as the full scale of the fiscal and banking crises in Ireland emerged. The question we address in this paper is whether expected retirement ages of Irish individuals aged 50 to 64 changed as a result of the policy announcement and/or the bad economic news. The data we use are from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). Between late 2009 and early 2011, over 8,500 people aged 50 and over in Ireland were interviewed about a wide range of issues including standard socio-economic items such as labour force status, earnings and education. Respondents were also asked at what age they expected to retire. Our findings show that there was no noticeable break in expected retirement ages before and after 3 March 2010 (the day on which the policy announcement was made). However, there was a clear shift of people into the categories don't plan to retire and do not know before and after September 30 2010. This was the day that the full scale of the banking crisis emerged (named by the media as Black Thursday) and was followed by the set of events which led to the bailout of November 2010. Similarly, there was a shift away from modal expected retirement ages after that date.
机译:2010年3月,爱尔兰政府宣布,将领取国家养老金的年龄提高到2014年的66岁,2021年的67岁和2028年的68岁。同样,在2010年期间,经济新闻变得越来越糟糕,因为爱尔兰出现了财政和银行危机。我们在本文中要解决的问题是,由于政策宣布和/或不利的经济消息,爱尔兰50至64岁个人的预期退休年龄是否发生了变化。我们使用的数据来自爱尔兰纵向老龄化研究(TILDA)。在2009年末至2011年初,爱尔兰有8500多名50岁及以上的人接受了广泛的采访,包括标准社会经济项目,如劳动力状况,收入和教育。还询问了受访者他们预期退休的年龄。我们的调查结果表明,在2010年3月3日(政策发布之日)之前和之后,预期退休年龄没有明显下降。但是,有明显的人群转移到了不打算退休的人群中,并且在2010年9月30日之前和之后都不知道。这是银行危机全面爆发的一天(被媒体称为黑色星期四) ),随后发生了一系列事件,导致2010年11月的纾困。类似地,该日期之后的模式退休年龄也有所偏离。

著录项

  • 作者

    Barrett Alan; Mosca Irene;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2012
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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