Dynamic activity analysis model based win-win development forecasting under the environmental regulation in China

摘要

Porter Hypothesis states that environmental regulation may lead to win-win opportunities, that is, improve the productivity and reduce the undesirable output simultaneously. Based on directional distance function, this paper proposes a novel dynamic activity analysis model to forecast the possibilities of win-win development in Chinese Industry between 2009 and 2049. The evidence reveals that the appropriate energy-saving and emission-abating regulation will result in both the improvement in net growth of potential output and the steadily increasing growth of total factor productivity. This favors Porter Hypothesis.