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Afforestation and timber management compliance strategies in climate policy: A computable general equilibrium analysis

机译:气候政策中的造林和木材管理合规策略:可计算的一般均衡分析

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摘要

This paper analyzes the role of afforestation-reforestation and timber management activities, and their major and secondary economic effects in stabilizing climate during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. In particular, with a Computable General Equilibrium framework, the ICES model, it is inferred how forest carbon sequestration fits within the European domestic portfolio of a 2020-20 and 2020-30 climate stabilization policy. Afforestation and land use are accounted for by introducing their effects in the model. This is done by relying on carbon sequestration curves provided by Sohngen (2005), which describe the average annual cost of sequestration for selected world regions. Results show that afforestation and timber management could lead to substantially lower policy costs if included. By allowing afforestation alone it is possible to achieve the 30% emissions reduction target with an additional European effort of only 0.2% compared with the cost of a 20% emissions reduction without afforestation. The introduction of these alternatives for mitigating climate is expected to reduce carbon price by around 30% in 2020 and the already contained leakage effect (around 1%), coming from an independent European commitment, by 0.2%
机译:本文分析了在《京都议定书》的第一个承诺期内,造林,再造林和木材管理活动的作用及其在稳定气候中的主要和次要经济影响。特别是,通过可计算的一般均衡框架(ICES模型),可以推断出森林固碳如何适合2020-20年和2020-30年气候稳定政策的欧洲国内投资组合。通过在模型中引入造林和土地利用来对其进行解释。这是通过依靠Sohngen(2005)提供的碳固存曲线来完成的,该曲线描述了选定世界区域的平均每年固碳成本。结果表明,如果包括绿化和木材管理,可以大大降低政策成本。通过仅允许造林,欧洲只需付出0.2%的努力即可实现30%的减排目标,相比之下,不造林则要减少20%的减排成本。引入这些替代品来缓解气候变化,预计将在2020年将碳价降低30%左右,而来自欧洲的一项独立承诺已经遏制的泄漏效应(大约1%)将降低0.2%。

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