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A fiscal rule that has teeth : a suggestion for a 'fiscal sustainability council' underpinned by the financial markets

机译:一个有牙齿的财政规则:建议由金融市场支撑的“财政可持续性委员会”

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摘要

In this paper, we set out to examine an efficient fiscal-policy framework for a monetary union. We illustrate that fiscal policy's bias toward budget deficit only temporarily ceased at the end of the 20th century as European countries endeavored to qualify for euro-zone membership, which compelled strict limits on budgetary deficits. We then explore which mechanisms might instill a sense of fiscal disciple in governments. We find that most mechanisms suffer from the incentive-incompatible setup whereby governments restrict their own fiscal-policy freedom. We argue that even multilateral fiscal rules, such as the EU's Stability and Growth Pact, suffer from the same endogeneity flaw. Consequently, we argue that a fiscal rule must incorporate an external authority that would impartially assess fiscal-policy developments. Using U.S. debt and bond-market data at the state level, we show that financial markets represent a good candidate as, vis-?-vis the American states, they do differentiate state debt according to the level of debt. We thus argue for a fiscal institution??what we call the Fiscal Sustainability Council??that would actively bring financial markets into the fiscal-policy process, and we explain the technique whereby this could be effected.
机译:在本文中,我们着手研究一个有效的货币联盟财政政策框架。我们举例说明,由于欧洲国家努力争取成为欧元区成员国,因此财政政策对预算赤字的偏见只是在20世纪末才暂时停止,这对预算赤字提出了严格的限制。然后,我们探讨了哪些机制可能会在政府中灌输财政门徒的意识。我们发现,大多数机制都遭受了与激励机制不兼容的设置,即政府限制了自己的财政政策自由。我们认为,即使是多边财政规则,例如欧盟的《稳定与增长公约》,也存在相同的内生缺陷。因此,我们认为,财政规则必须纳入外部机构,以公正地评估财政政策的发展。使用州一级的美国债务和债券市场数据,我们表明金融市场是一个不错的候选者,因为相对于美国各州,金融市场确实根据债务水平来区分州债务。因此,我们主张建立一个可以将金融市场积极带入财政政策进程的财政机构(我们称为财政可持续发展理事会),并说明可以实现这一目标的技术。

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