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Macro News, Riskfree Rates, and the Intermediary

机译:宏观新闻,无风险利率和中介

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摘要

Signed customer order flow correlates with permanent price changes in equity and nonequity markets. We exploit macro news events in the 30Y treasury futures market to identify causality from customer flow to riskfree rates. We remove the positive feedback trading part and establish that, in the 15 minutes subsequent to the news, intermediaries rely on customer orders to determine a substantial part of the announcement's effect on riskfree rates, i.e. one-third relative to the instantaneous effect. They appear to benefit from privately observing informed customers, as, in the cross-section, their own-account trade profitability correlates with access to customer flow, controlling for volatility, competition, and the macro ``surprise''.
机译:签署的客户订单流与股票和非股票市场中的永久价格变化相关。我们利用30年期金库期货市场中的宏观新闻事件来确定从客户流向无风险利率的因果关系。我们删除了正面反馈交易部分,并确定在消息发布后的15分钟内,中介机构将根据客户订单确定公告对无风险利率的影响的很大一部分,即相对于瞬时影响的三分之一。他们似乎从私人观察知情的客户中受益,因为在横截面中,他们自己的账户贸易获利能力与获得客户流,控制波动性,竞争和宏观``惊喜''相关。

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