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Quid pro quo: National institutions and sudden stops in international capital movements

机译:Quid proo:国家机构和国际资本流动突然停止

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摘要

We explore the incidence of sudden stops in capital flows on the incentives for building national institutions that secure property rights in a world where sovereign defaults are possible equilibrium outcomes. This paper builds upon the benchmark model of sovereign default and direct creditor sanctions by Obstfeld and Rogoff (1996). In their model it is in the debtor country's interest to tie its hands and secure the property rights of lenders as much as possible because this enhances the credibility of the country's promise to repay and prevents default altogether. We incorporate two key features of today's international financial markets that are absent from the benchmark model: the possibility that lenders can trigger sudden stops in capital movements, and debt contracts in which lenders transfer resources to the country at the start of the period, which have to be repaid later. We show that under these conditions the advice 'build institutions to secure repayment at all costs' may be very bad advice indeed.
机译:我们探讨了资本流动突然停止的可能性,这是建立在国家主权可能成为均衡结果的世界上建立产权保护国家机构的激励措施上的。本文建立在Obstfeld和Rogoff(1996)对主权债务违约和直接债权人制裁的基准模型的基础上。在他们的模型中,尽其所能并尽可能确保贷方的财产所有权符合债务国的利益,因为这增强了该国偿还诺言的信誉,并完全防止了违约。我们结合了基准模型所没有的当今国际金融市场的两个关键特征:放贷方可能触发资本流动的突然停止,以及债务合同,在此期间开始时放贷方将资源转移到该国。待日后偿还。我们表明,在这种情况下,“建立机构以不惜一切代价确保还款”的建议确实是非常糟糕的建议。

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