Transferable decision-making procedure for integrated flood management: A theoretical approach to the micro studies of human decision-making and decision makers heuristics

摘要

The development and implementation of a transferable decision support system (DSS) for environmental or natural resources management has been a great challenge. The management problems dealing with both natural and social processes are fundamentally bound with complexity and uncertainty. This has resulted in the much recognised interfacing and integration problems of scientific outputs into decision-making process and these problems have been subjected to contradictory debates too. In this conjunction, holistic and integrated approaches are still required for the understanding of the elements that underlie the complex situations and subsequently for addressing the interfacing and integration problems in order to improve the applicability and transferability of DSS. The main purpose of this working paper is to primarily compile and analyse literature and the state-of-the-art pertaining to these issues, so as to provide a setting and framework for the research project. The ultimate aim of the research project is to develop a transferable decisionmaking procedure through the integration of knowledge production and use (or soft and hard systems) in the field of integrated flood management and thus to promote cooperation and consensus between different actors. A theoretical approach is adopted in this study. The concept of systems thinking is used for the understanding of the complex decision-making system that underlies the complex situations. Complex decision problems are analysed based on the concept of unstructured problems proposed by Kolkman et al. (2005). Whilst, the integration problems are addressed based on different concepts and theories, namely the paradigm lock, epistemic community and bounded rationality. Subsequently, a conceptual framework addressing the problems through the broad perspective of organisation knowledge management is proposed. The framework illustrates an organisation of scientists and decision-makers getting involved in the knowledge management process. It provides for guidance or stepping stone to further take on micro studies of human decision-making as well as decision makers heuristics.