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How to sustain the Chinese economic miracle? The risk of unraveling the global rebalancing

机译:如何维持中国经济奇迹?解开全球再平衡的风险

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摘要

This paper investigates China's role in creating global imbalances, and the related call for a massive renminbi revaluation as a (supposed) panacea to forestall their reemergence as the world economy recovers from severe crisis. We reject the prominence widely attributed to China as a cause of global imbalances and the exclusive focus on the renminbi-dollar exchange rate as misguided. And we emphasize that China's response to the global crisis has been exemplary. Apart from acting as a growth leader in the global recovery by boosting domestic demand to offset the slump in exports, China has in the process successfully completed the first stage in rebalancing its economy, which is in stark contrast to other leading trading nations that have simply resumed previous policy patterns. The second stage in China's rebalancing will consist of further strengthening private consumption. We argue that this will be best supported by continued reliance on renminbi stability and capital account management, so as to assure that macroeconomic policies can be framed in line with domestic development requirements.
机译:本文研究了中国在制造全球失衡中的作用,并呼吁人民币大幅升值,作为(万一)灵丹妙药,以防止世界经济从严重危机中复苏时重新崛起。我们拒绝普遍认为中国是全球失衡的原因,也不接受误导人民币汇率的观点。我们强调,中国对全球危机的反应堪称典范。除了通过提高内需以抵消出口下滑而成为全球复苏的增长领导者外,中国在此过程中还成功完成了经济再平衡的第一阶段,这与其他主要贸易国形成鲜明对比恢复以前的策略模式。中国再平衡的第二阶段将包括进一步加强私人消费。我们认为,这将得到持续依赖人民币稳定和资本账户管理的最好支持,以确保宏观经济政策可以与国内发展要求相一致。

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  • 作者

    Bibow Juf6rg;

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  • 年度 2010
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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