In this brief, Research Scholar Greg Hannsgen and President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou focus on the risks and possibilities ahead for the US economy. Using a Keynesian approach and drawing from the commentary of other observers, they analyze publicly available data in order to assess the strength and durability of the expansion that probably began in 2009. They focus on four broad groups of markets that have shown signs of stress for the last several years: financial markets, markets for household goods and services, commodity markets, and labor markets. This kind of analysis does not yield numerical forecasts but it can provide important clues about the short-term outlook for the country's economic well-being, and cast light on some longer-run threats. In particular, dangers and stresses in the financial and banking systems are presently very serious, and labor market data show every sign of a widespread and severe weakness in aggregate demand. Unless there is new resolve for effective government action on the jobs front, drastic cuts in much-needed federal, state, and local programs will become the order of the day in the United States, as in much of Europe.
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机译:在这篇简报中,研究学者Greg Hannsgen和总统Dimitri B. Papadimitriou着重介绍了美国经济未来的风险和可能性。他们使用凯恩斯主义方法并借鉴其他观察家的评论,分析了可公开获得的数据,以评估可能始于2009年的扩张的强度和持久性。他们着眼于四大类市场,这些市场已显示出压力的迹象。最近几年:金融市场,家庭用品和服务市场,商品市场和劳动力市场。这种分析不会产生数值预测,但可以提供有关该国经济前景的短期前景的重要线索,并为一些长期威胁提供启示。特别是,目前金融和银行系统中的危险和压力非常严重,劳动力市场数据表明总需求普遍且严重疲软的任何迹象。除非有新的决心在就业方面采取有效的政府行动,否则在美国和欧洲大部分地区一样,急需大幅削减急需的联邦,州和地方计划。
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