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On the co-evolution of insider information and idiosyncratic beliefs

机译:论内幕信息与特质信念的共同演化

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摘要

In a market with stochastic demand at most one seller can acquire costly information about demand. Other sellers entertain idiosyncratic beliefs about the market demand and the probability that an informed seller is trading in the market. These idiosyncratic beliefs co-evolve with the potential insideru92s inclination to acquire information. True demand expectations are not evolutionarily stable when beliefs, via revelation, can be used to commit to more aggressive behavior. The commitment effect fades away in large markets and has the same direction for both strategic substitutes and complements. Whether one observes an insider, in the long run, depends on information costs. For strategic substitutes insider activity benefits the whole population whereas the uninformed sellers could gain even more than the insider.
机译:在需求随机的市场中,最多一位卖家可以获取有关需求的昂贵信息。其他卖方则对市场需求和知情卖方在市场上交易的可能性抱有特殊的信念。这些特质信念与潜在的内部人士倾向于获取信息。当通过启示将信念用于做出更具侵略性的行为时,真正的需求期望在进化上就不稳定。承诺效应在大型市场中逐渐消失,并且战略替代品和互补品的方向相同。从长远来看,是否观察到内部人员取决于信息成本。对于战略替代者,内幕活动使全体民众受益,而未知情的卖家所获得的利益甚至比内幕人还要多。

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