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FDI, Aid, Terrorism: Conditional Threshold Evidence from Developing Countries

机译:外国直接投资,援助,恐怖主义:来自发展中国家的条件门槛证据

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摘要

We investigate how foreign aid dampens the effects of terrorism on FDI using interactive quantile regressions. The empirical evidence is based on 78 developing countries for the period 1984-2008. Bilateral and multilateral aid variables are used, while terrorism dynamics entail: domestic, unclear, transnational and total number of terrorist attacks. The following findings are established. First, while the effects of multilateral aid are consistently significant with positive threshold evidence, bilateral aid is only positively significant in bottom quantiles. Second, with the slight exception of transnational terrorism in bilateral aid regressions, the impacts of terrorism dynamics are unexpectedly positive, in: (i) bottoms quantiles with domestic terrorism and the 0.25th quantile with total terrorism, for bilateral aid regressions, and (ii) the 0.25th quantile with domestic terrorism and bottom quantiles of transnational terrorism, for multilateral aid regressions. Third, interactions between terrorism and foreign aid dynamics unexpectedly yield negative effects in: (i) bilateral aid and domestic terrorism in bottom quantiles and (ii) multilateral aid and domestic (transnational) terrorism in the 0.25th(bottom) quantile(s). The modifying threshold value of bilateral aid is higher than that of multilateral aid. Fourth, there is positive threshold evidence from GDP growth, infrastructural development and trade openness. Policy implications are discussed.
机译:我们使用互动分位数回归研究了外国援助如何减轻恐怖主义对外国直接投资的影响。经验证据基于1984-2008年期间的78个发展中国家。使用了双边和多边援助变量,而恐怖主义动态则涉及:国内,不清楚,跨国和恐怖袭击的总数。建立以下发现。首先,尽管多边援助的效果在具有积极的阈值证据的情况下始终是显着的,但双边援助仅在最底层的分位数中具有积极的意义。其次,除了双边援助回归中的跨国恐怖主义外,恐怖主义动态的影响出乎意料地是积极的,在以下方面:(i)对于双边援助回归,国内恐怖主义的分位数和恐怖主义总量的第0.25分位数;以及(ii )国内恐怖主义和跨国恐怖主义的最低分位数的第0.25分位数,用于多边援助回归。第三,恐怖主义和外国援助动态之间的相互作用出乎意料地在以下方面产生负面影响:(i)最低分位数的双边援助和国内恐怖主义,以及(ii)最低分位数的(0.25)多边援助和国内(跨国)恐怖主义。双边援助的修正门槛值高于多边援助。第四,从GDP增长,基础设施发展和贸易开放度来看,有积极的门槛证据。讨论了政策含义。

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