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Spillover effects in government bond spreads: Evidence from a GVAR model

机译:政府债券利差的溢出效应:来自GVaR模型的证据

摘要

This paper analyses the main drivers of sovereign bond spreads in a globalised world. Specifically, we account for international spillovers of bond spreads by adding an additional driver, namely, financial markets, and allowing interactions across countries and markets. We contribute to the VAR literature by taking a global VAR approach, which encompasses international linkages and spillovers and also deals with the issue of identification and the large dimensionality. We find significant spillovers across countries and across markets. Moreover, we reveal that bond spreads are driven by stock markets. Furthermore, highly indebted countries react more strongely to foreign shocks than do stable economies. European bond markets are primarily driven by European shocks, whereas U.S. shocks have a higher impact on European countries that are in crisis and other non-European OECD countries. Our results demonstrate that financial market participants, central bankers, and fiscal policymakers need to be aware of global interdependencies, as bond spread volatility is driven by different factors for each country.
机译:本文分析了全球化世界中主权债券利差的主要驱动因素。具体来说,我们通过添加其他驱动因素(即金融市场)并允许跨国家和市场进行交互来解决债券利差的国际溢出问题。我们采用全球VAR方法,为VAR文学做出了贡献,该方法涵盖了国际联系和溢出,并且还处理标识和大范围问题。我们发现跨国家和跨市场的重大溢出效应。此外,我们发现债券利差是由股票市场驱动的。此外,负债沉重的国家对外国冲击的反应比稳定的经济体更强烈。欧洲债券市场主要受到欧洲冲击的推动,而美国冲击对处于危机中的欧洲国家和其他非欧洲经合组织国家具有更大的影响。我们的结果表明,金融债券市场的参与者,中央银行和财政政策制定者需要意识到全球的相互依赖性,因为各国的债券利差波动性是由不同的因素驱动的。

著录项

  • 作者

    Niehof Britta;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2014
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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