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Early warning system for economic and financial risks in Kazakhstan

机译:哈萨克斯坦经济和金融风险预警系统

摘要

This paper proposes a macro-prudential financial soundness analysis that can be used by most developing and transformation countries with or without crisis experience as well as by developed countries with limited data. The objective is to detect economic and financial sector vulnerability, design appropriate remedial policy responses and undertake preventing actions to address vulnerabilities. The paper also discusses a process for identifying and compiling a set of leading macro-prudential indicators. The system will be tested using a case study referring to Kazakhstan. The main novelty of the study lies in designing composite indicators for the real economy, the banking sector, the overall financial sector and finally the international economic environment of Kazakhstan and in studying the interaction of these composite indicators. An additional innovation is the relatively extensive use of qualitative business survey data to monitor vulnerability or crises; these surveys are data which until now have not been used much in this area of research.
机译:本文提出了一种宏观审慎的财务稳健性分析,该模型可用于具有或没有危机经验的大多数发展中国家和转型国家以及数据有限的发达国家。目的是发现经济和金融部门的脆弱性,设计适当的补救政策应对措施,并采取预防措施来解决脆弱性。本文还讨论了识别和汇编一组领先的宏观审慎指标的过程。将使用涉及哈萨克斯坦的案例研究对该系统进行测试。该研究的主要新颖之处在于为哈萨克斯坦的实体经济,银行部门,整体金融部门以及最终的国际经济环境设计综合指标,并研究这些综合指标之间的相互作用。另一个创新是相对广泛地使用定性业务调查数据来监视漏洞或危机。这些调查是迄今为止在该研究领域中未使用过的数据。

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