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The real exchange rate, foreign aid and macroeconomic transmission mechanisms in Tanzania and Ghana

机译:坦桑尼亚和加纳的实际汇率,对外援助和宏观经济传导机制

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摘要

A recent study of 36 sub-Saharan African countries found a positive impact of aid in the absolute majority of these countries. However, for Tanzania and Ghana, two major aid recipients, aid did not seem to have been equally beneficial. This paper singles out these two countries for a more detailed empirical investigation. The focus is now on the effect of aid when allowing external and nominal factors to play a role in the macroeconomic transmission mechanism. We conclude that aid played a significantly positive - but very different - role in the two countries. Due in part to generous aid inflows Tanzania experienced positive investment and GDP growth from the late 1960s to 2007. But, until the mid-1980s, the impact of aid on growth was well below its potential as the large inflows of aid facilitated a serious over appreciation of the real exchange rate. In Ghana, declining aid in the 1970s was associated with lacking growth while the reactivation of aid flows in the 1980s supported an economic rebound. When monetary and external factors are properly accounted for, we find that aid has been pivotal to growth in both real GDP and investment.
机译:最近对36个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的研究发现,援助对这些国家中的绝对多数产生了积极影响。但是,对于坦桑尼亚和加纳这两个主要援助接受国而言,援助似乎并没有同样地受益。本文选择了这两个国家进行更详细的实证研究。现在的重点是当允许外部因素和名义因素在宏观经济传导机制中发挥作用时的援助效果。我们得出的结论是,援助在两国中发挥了显着的积极作用,但又截然不同。坦桑尼亚从1960年代末到2007年经历了积极的投资和GDP增长,部分原因是援助大量流入。但是,直到1980年代中期,援助对增长的影响远低于其潜力,因为大量的援助流入导致了严重的经济增长。实际汇率升值。在加纳,1970年代援助减少与增长乏力有关,而1980年代援助流量的重新启动则支持了经济反弹。如果适当考虑了货币和外部因素,我们发现援助对于实际GDP和投资的增长至关重要。

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