An exploration of ethnic differences of the influences of home and school on the development of young people’s educational expectations for university study between ages 14 to 16

摘要

Class analysis suggests a strong positive link between parental social position and adolescent educational expectations. Yet, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Black Caribbean pupils with disadvantaged parents maintain much higher expectations for university study compared to their white peers from more advantaged families. Ethnicity is key to understanding this paradox. Yet, quantitative research has not explained how ethnicity impacts on adolescent expectations or whose expectations it impacts most. This thesis investigates whether the longitudinal association between parental social position at age 14 and pupils expectations at age 16 is mediated by parent-child conflict, pupils’ homework engagement, feelings about school and pupils’ assessments of teacher effectiveness at pupils’ age 15, net of all prior influences at age 14. It then explores whether these mediational routes are moderated by maternal ethnicity. Ecological systems theory informs a longitudinal latent variable mediation model estimated on panel data from waves 1-3 of the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England.ududParental social position at age 14 does not affect pupils’ expectations at age 16 via the hypothesised home and school factors at age 15. Its longitudinal influence is weak on white, modest on Black Caribbean and Pakistani and insignificant on Indian and Bangladeshi pupils’ expectations at age 16 casting doubt on classical sociological models. Moderation by maternal ethnicity strengthens the positive longitudinal influence of home-related factors on expectations and tones down the negative effect of family disadvantage or other negative influences particularly on South Asian pupils’ expectations at age 16. Pupils’ expectations at age 14 significantly impact on home and school factors and expectations at age 15 and are the primary indirect route of influence on expectations at age 16. Moderated by maternal ethnicity, this mediational mechanism allows South Asian pupils to develop and maintain higher expectations than white pupils despite family disadvantage.