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Amazonian Deforestation, Environmental Kuznets Curve and Deforestation Policy: A Cointegration Approach

机译:亚马逊森林砍伐,环境库兹涅茨曲线和森林砍伐政策:一种协整方法

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摘要

Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate is found to display a unit root and to be cointegrated with Brazilian GDP and its square – An Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Although, it is not the first time that such an EKC is detected, this may be the first such time-series evidence. Detecting an EKC is hampered by several econometric issues that have been shown to lead to possibly spurious results in cross-section and panel contexts, but are satisfactorily addressed in a cointegrated (time-series) framework. Alternative theories for explaining the deforestation path are rejected. There is evidence that the " Action Plan " of the Brazilian government against deforestation had an important effect. These results are in contrast to the economics literature on an EKC in emissions such asCO2, but appear to be consistent with a geographical sciences literature that considers that deforestation declines when alternative activities become available.
机译:发现巴西亚马逊地区的森林砍伐率显示出单位根,并与巴西GDP及其平方成正比。这就是环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)。尽管这不是第一次检测到这种EKC,但这可能是第一个这样的时间序列证据。几个计量经济学问题阻碍了EKC的检测,这些问题已被证明可能在横截面和面板环境中导致虚假的结果,但是在协整(时间序列)框架中得到了令人满意的解决。拒绝解释森林砍伐路径的其他理论。有证据表明,巴西政府针对森林砍伐的“行动计划”产生了重要影响。这些结果与有关诸如二氧化碳等排放的EKC的经济学文献相反,但似乎与地理科学文献一致,该文献认为,当有替代活动时,森林砍伐将减少。

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