Assessment and modeling of lava flow hazard on Mt. Etna volcano

摘要

A methodology for constructing a probability map of lava inundation by consideringthe past eruptive behavior of the Mt. Etna volcano is described. The basic a prioriassumption is that new vents will not form far from existing ones and that such adistribution can be performed using a Gaussian kernel. The methodology followsseveral steps: computation of a susceptibility map that provides the spatial probabilityof vent opening; evaluation of the temporal probability for the occurrence of thehazard during the considered time interval; characterization of the expected eruptions;numerical simulations of lava flow paths and elaboration of the hazard map. Theapplication of MAGFLOW code, a physical-mathematical model, for simulating thelava flow paths represents the central part of this methodology for the hazardassessment at Mt. Etna. The simulation approach, to assess lava flow hazard, providesa more robust and locally accurate analysis than a simple probabilistic approach andaccounts for the influence of the actual topography on the path of future lava flows.