People exposure and land use damage estimation caused by tsunami using numerical modelling and GIS approaches (Case study: South Coast of Java - Indonesia)

摘要

For tsunami risk analysis information about thenumber of exposed people and about the land-use inthe endangered areas are important inputparameters. Data on people distribution could helpto manage the evacuation planning and mitigate thepeople loss by tsunami. Land-use and potentialdamages are relevant for rehabilitation managementThe aim of the paper is to presentmethodologies and tools to generate the abovementioned missing information before a disasterhappens. Based on this, governmental authoritiescan prepare and calculate how many people areliving in the affected area, how many people couldbe evacuated, and how to perform adequate landuse planning to mitigate the disaster impact. For thedisaster response phase, the local government willbe supported to plan and manage the evacuationprocess more efficiently. For the recovery phase,government will be provided by estimates on theamount and type of potential damages.This research analyzes the estimation of peopleat risk and potential land-use damage estimation bytsunamis in the South Coast of Java, Indonesia.Combinations of numerical modelling andGeographic Information System (GIS) approacheshave been applied in this research. There are threescenarios for tsunami simulations generated byearthquake magnitude Mw 8.5 with differentlocations of the epicentres.TUNAMI-N1 model has been applied todetermine the tsunami wave height in the coastalarea. Validation of tsunami modelling has beenperformed using Aceh Tsunami 2004 data.Inundation modelling was applied to the studyarea and the results were combined with the peopledistribution map and land-use data to estimatepeople at risk and land-use damage by tsunami.People distribution maps during day time andnight time were derived.The results of this research will be integrated inan information system, which in future can beapplied on the level of the local government tobetter mitigate the impact of tsunami disaster andprovide tools for an improved tsunami riskassessment for decision makers at the local level.