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Modelling mode choice for freight transport using advanced choice experiments

机译:使用高级选择实验进行货运的建模模式选择

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摘要

In this paper we use advanced choice modelling techniques to analyse demand for freight transport in a context of modal choice. To this end, a stated preference (SP) survey was conducted in order to estimate freight shipper preferences for the main attributes that define the service offered by the different transport modes. From a methodological point of view, we focus on two critical issues in the construction of efficient choice experiments. Firstly, in obtaining good quality prior information about the parameters; and secondly, in the improved quality of the experimental data by tailoring a specific efficient design for every respondent in the sample.With these data, different mixed logit models incorporating panel correlation effects and accounting for systematic and random taste heterogeneity are estimated. For the best model specification we obtain the willingness to pay for improving the level of service and the elasticity of the choice probabilities for the different attributes. Our model provide interesting results that can be used to analyse the potential diversion of traffic from road (the current option) to alternative modes, rail or maritime, as well as to help in the obtaining of the modal distribution of commercial traffic between Spain and the European Union, currently passing through the Pyrenees.
机译:在本文中,我们使用高级选择建模技术来分析在模式选择背景下的货运需求。为此,进行了明示偏好(SP)调查,以估计货运托运人对定义不同运输方式所提供服务的主要属性的偏好。从方法论的角度来看,我们关注有效选择实验构建中的两个关键问题。首先,为了获得高质量的有关参数的先验信息;其次,通过为样品中的每个应答者量身定制一个有效的设计来提高实验数据的质量。利用这些数据,可以估算出不同的混合logit模型,这些模型结合了面板相关效应并考虑了系统性和随机味觉异质性。对于最佳的模型规范,我们愿意为提高服务水平和针对不同属性的选择概率的弹性付费。我们的模型提供了有趣的结果,可用于分析交通从公路(当前选项)到替代方式(铁路或海上)的潜在转移,以及有助于获得西班牙与西班牙之间商业交通的模式分布。欧洲联盟,目前正在穿越比利牛斯山脉。

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