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Adaptacja algorytmu prowadzenia procesu foresightu technologicznego w jednostkach badawczo-rozwojowych

机译:适应研究和开发单位进行技术预见过程的算法

摘要

The dynamic increase in the importance of competitiveness and innovativeness associated with high technologies and the resulting need for strategic planning at the country, region and organisation level drives world economies to take efforts to predict changes and development trends, particularly in the medium and long term. Foresight techniques are an effective tool to achieve this goal. For foresight to be implemented effectively, an individualised approach is needed each time, taking account of the singularities of the country, organisation or subject-matter. The authors of this paper analyse the specific social and economic background of foresight projects in Poland, paying particular attention to negative influences on the implementation and outputs of foresight projects, such as: insufficient networking between business, science, policy and the public, low private sector’s involvement in R&D efforts, reliance on technology transfer and diffusion rather than on developing core technologies, and the bureaucratisation of the administration system. Against this background the article proposes an algorithm of proceeding during foresight projects at R&D units that strive to achieve sustainable growth. Particular attention is given to two essential elements which determine the effectiveness of a foresight exercise: selection of methodologies and experts. The authors use the proposed foresight algorithm to identify key research directions in nanotechnology in Poland. They opt for the technologies method as the main method in this exercise. The following additional expert methods were adopted: environment scanning, SWOT analysis, reference tree, supplemented with results of statistical surveys. As a result, the authors identified directions which are currently being followed in leading economies: ones where Poland has already made significant achievements. They also pointed out to areas which are new for Poland but there is potential for the country to make an important contribution on the European scale within a relatively short time.
机译:与高科技相关的竞争力和创新的重要性的动态增长以及由此产生的在国家,地区和组织层面进行战略规划的需求,驱使世界经济采取努力来预测变化和发展趋势,特别是在中长期内。有远见的技术是实现这一目标的有效工具。为了有效实施远见卓识,每次都需要采用个性化的方法,并考虑到国家,组织或主题的独特性。本文的作者分析了波兰远见项目的具体社会和经济背景,特别注意对远见项目的实施和产出的负面影响,例如:企业,科学,政策与公众之间的网络不足,私有程度低部门参与研发工作,依赖技术转让和扩散而不是发展核心技术以及行政管理体制的官僚化。在此背景下,本文提出了一种在力争实现可持续增长的研发部门的远见项目期间进行的算法。特别注意确定预见性练习的有效性的两个基本要素:方法和专家的选择。作者使用提出的预见算法确定波兰纳米技术的关键研究方向。他们选择技术方法作为本练习的主要方法。还采用了以下其他专家方法:环境扫描,SWOT分析,参考树以及统计调查的结果。结果,作者确定了主要经济体目前正在遵循的方向:波兰已经取得重大成就的那些国家。他们还指出了波兰新的领域,但该国有潜力在较短时间内在欧洲范围内做出重要贡献。

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