Choix d'un régime de change dans un pays en transition intégrant une union économique et monétaire - le cas de Pologne

摘要

Nowadays, the following issues are debated: WHEN, HOW and AT WHICH EXCHANGE RATE should Poland exchange the zloty for the Euro. This thesis contributes to the discussion by focusing on the impact of the exchange rate policy on the structural transformation of the economy. The first chapter summarises how the theory of the choice of an exchange rate system evolved. The second chapter explains Poland's exchange rate policy. In chapter three we then consider the structural transformation of the Polish economy, which leads us to the following question: “can the exchange rate policy enhance the growth of the modern sector?” In order to answer it, we have to find out first of all whether the exchange rate policy has any influence on the real economy, in the short or in the medium run. In the fourth chapter, we will then establish the nominal rigidities of prices and salaries in the Polish economy. The modelling of the Polish economy is discussed in chapter five. The economy suffers two chocks that are typical for transition and economic integration: lower employment in the post-socialist sector and higher progress in the traditional sector. These chocks do not advantage the advanced sector as compared to the traditional sector. As a next step, we find out if the exchange rate can change the situation. We analyse a depreciation of the exchange rate and a decrease of the risk premium, which represents the deepening of the financial market after joining the Euro zone. Since the modern sector is more capital-intensive, it benefits most from a lower risk premium. As a conclusion, the country should adopt the Euro.