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'Vulnerability Due to Nocturnal Tornadoes'

机译:“夜间龙卷风导致的漏洞”

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摘要

This study investigates the human vulnerability caused by tornadoes that occurred between sunset and sunrise from 1880 to 2007. Nocturnal tornadoes are theorized to enhance vulnerability because they are difficult to spot and occur when the public tends to be asleep and in weak building structures. Results illustrate that the nocturnal tornado death rate over the past century has not shared the same pace of decline as those events transpiring during the daytime. From 1950 to 2005, a mere 27.3% of tornadoes were nocturnal, yet 39.3% of tornado fatalities and 42.1% of killer tornado events occurred at night. Tornadoes during the overnight period (local midnight to sunrise) are 2.5 times as likely to kill as those occurring during the daytime hours. It is argued that a core reason why the national tornado fatality toll has not continued to decrease in the past few decades is due to the vulnerability to these nocturnal events. This vulnerability is magnified when other factors such as escalating mobile (or “manufactured”) home stock and an increasing and spreading population are realized. Unlike other structure types that show no robust demarcation between nocturnal and daytime fatalities, nearly 61% of fatalities in mobile homes take place at night revealing this housing stock’s distinct nocturnal tornado vulnerability. Further, spatial analysis illustrates that the American South’s high nocturnal tornado risk is an important factor leading to the region’s high fatality rate. The investigation emphasizes a potential break in the tornado warning dissemination system utilized currently in the United States.
机译:这项研究调查了1880年至2007年日落和日出之间发生的龙卷风造成的人类脆弱性。从理论上讲,夜间龙卷风会增强脆弱性,因为当公众容易入睡且建筑结构薄弱时,很难发现它们。结果表明,过去一个世纪的夜间龙卷风死亡率没有与白天发生的事件一样快地下降。从1950年到2005年,仅27.3%的龙卷风是夜间活动,但39.3%的龙卷风死亡和42.1%的致命龙卷风事件在夜间发生。在夜间时段(当地午夜至日出),龙卷风造成的死亡几率是白天时段发生的龙卷风的2.5倍。有人认为,过去几十年来全国龙卷风致死人数没有继续减少的一个核心原因是由于对这些夜间事件的脆弱性。当意识到其他因素(例如,移动(或“制造”)房屋库存不断增加以及人口的增加和扩散)时,此漏洞会被放大。与其他类型的结构不同,夜间死亡和白天死亡之间没有明显的界限,移动房屋中有近61%的死亡是在夜间发生的,这表明该房屋存有明显的夜间龙卷风脆弱性。此外,空间分析表明,美国南部夜间龙卷风的高风险是导致该地区高死亡率的重要因素。调查强调,美国目前使用的龙卷风警告发布系统可能会中断。

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