Rethinking farmers' intended risk behaviour: the role of risk perception, risk attitude and decision context

摘要

Farming is inherently risky and farmers cope with uncertainty in prices, production policy and the financial situation on the farm. Risk management becomes more pertinent because of ongoing evolutions such as climate change, liberalization and globalization of markets and a changing European agricultural policy. The doctoral dissertation starts from an identified gap between the way risk in agriculture is studied in the scientific literature and the manner in which farmers actually cope with risk. Traditional models assume that general innate risk attitude has a central role in the explanation of risk behaviour. Risk attitude is then to be understood as the individual perspective on the acceptability of risk. However, risk attitude is not stable over a variety of situations, but differs with the type of risk and the risk context. The research described in this doctoral dissertation seeks alternative methods to study actual farmers’ risk coping. Central to the doctoral research is the role of the perception of risk and how it interacts with risk attitude and the decision context to affect the intention to take or avoid risk. Risk does not exist independently of our beliefs and judgement. Therefore, the individual experience of risk, or risk perception, must be considered, rather than objective risk in explaining risk behaviour. Risk perception can focus on the source of risk or the impact of risk. The perception of the impact of risk determines the risk behaviour. Moreover, the intention to take or avoid risk strongly depends on the context in which the risk is embedded, even when the risk itself does not change. This doctoral dissertation proposes methods that can elucidate and present the true risk perception of farmers and that can clarify the role of the decision context in the choice to take or avoid risk.