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Effects of Applying Linear and Nonlinear Filters on Tests for Unit Roots with Additive Outliers

机译:线性和非线性滤波器对单位根系附加离群点的影响

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摘要

Conventional univariate Dickey-Fuller tests tend to produce spurious stationarity whenthere exist additive outlying observations in the time series. Correct critical values are usuallyobtained by adding dummy variables to the Dickey-Fuller regression. This is a nice theoreticalresult but not attractive from the empirical point of view since almost any result can be obtained just by a convenient selection of dummy variables. In this paper we suggest a robust procedure based on running Dickey-Fuller tests on the trend component instead of the original series. We provide both finite-sample and large-sample justifications. Practical implementation is illustrated through an empirical example based on the US/Finland real exchange rate series.
机译:当在时间序列中存在附加的离群观测值时,常规的单变量Dickey-Fuller检验往往会产生虚假的平稳性。正确的临界值通常是通过在Dickey-Fuller回归中添加虚拟变量来获得的。这是一个很好的理论结果,但是从经验的角度来看并没有吸引力,因为几乎任何结果都可以通过方便地选择虚拟变量来获得。在本文中,我们提出了一种基于趋势组件而不是原始序列的Dickey-Fuller测试的稳健过程。我们提供有限样本和大样本证明。通过基于美国/芬兰实际汇率序列的经验示例来说明实际实施。

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