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The use of Artificial Neural Networks to adjust and robustness study of experience tables of maintenance in disability

机译:使用人工神经网络来调整和稳健性研究残疾人维护经验表

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摘要

Pricing and, more important, reserving "life / death" and "disability" risks are strictly defined by the regulation, which imposes particular constraints on the technical rate and the laws of occurrence or maintenance. However, the assessment of portfolios reserving differs from the standard one proposed by the BCAC. Insurance companies are increasingly forced toseek the construction of experience tables to manage these risks, especially since it is unrealistic today to expect offset losses by financial products. Traditional adjustment methods, in actuarial literature, usually used to smooth the recovery curve rate estimated usually by the robust Adjusted Kaplan‐Meier estimator, induce a model error due a boundary bias. The available data are usually sparse and poor quality on the border. Thus a boundary bias is due to weight allocation by the fixed symmetric argument outside the support of the gross curve, when smoothing close to the boundary is carried out. The objective of this work is the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for adjustment and smoothing experience tables of maintenance in disability applied to a two cycles real set data. The artificial neural networks are parametric nonlinear models able to play an "universal approximator" role achieving a local and global approximation. Two architectures networks are particularly suited to model and smooth gross output rates: Feedforward Neural Networks (FNN) and Radial Basis Functions (RBF) Networks. The robustness of the ANN globally and especially at the edge of curve can be also studied. Graphical tests are used to compare output surfaces rates obtained by neural networks with those obtained by Whittaker‐Henderson framework.
机译:该法规严格定义了定价,更重要的是保留“生命/死亡”和“残疾”风险,该法规对技术水平以及发生或维护的法律施加了特别的限制。但是,对投资组合准备金的评估不同于BCAC提出的标准。保险公司越来越多地被迫寻求建立经验表来管理这些风险,尤其是因为现在期望金融产品抵消损失是不现实的。在精算文献中,传统的调整方法通常用于平滑通常由健壮的经过调整的Kaplan-Meier估计器估计的恢复曲线速率,由于边界偏差会引起模型误差。可用数据通常稀疏且边界质量差。因此,当在靠近边界的位置进行平滑处理时,边界偏差是由于固定对称参数在总曲线的支撑范围之外进行权重分配而引起的。这项工作的目的是使用人工神经网络(ANN)来调整和平滑应用到两个周期的真实数据集的残疾维护经验表。人工神经网络是能够发挥“通用逼近器”作用以实现局部和全局逼近的参数非线性模型。两种体系结构网络特别适合于建模和平滑总产出率:前馈神经网络(FNN)和径向基函数(RBF)网络。也可以研究全局(尤其是在曲线边缘)人工神经网络的鲁棒性。图形测试用于将神经网络获得的输出表面速率与Whittaker-Henderson框架获得的输出表面速率进行比较。

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