Generalized linear models (GLMS) approach in modelling rainfall data over Johor and Kelantan area

摘要

Observations of rainfall data are always changing over time . With the concern over climate change , this study is done to demonstrate how Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) could be utilized to model daily rainfall amount over Johor and Kelantan areas. Hence, in modeling rainfall amount, Fourier series are used as the smoothing techn ique. This re earch concentrated on the daily rainfall series with the dura tion period of 1985 to 201 1 from three rainfall stations in Johor and another three in Kelantan area. The results indicated that the rainfall stations demonstrate different behaviours of rainfall patterns. One harmonic is sufficient to model the mean rainfall per rainy day at the stations that are located at the Johor area while four harmonics are best described the rainfall pattern at Kelantan area . Based on the resulting curve s with fitted smoothing parameters, a good summary of statistics of the six stations were obtained. The result s from the model will then be used to compare the rainfall patterns among the stations.