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A study on soft computing approach in weather forecasting

机译:天气预报中的软计算方法研究

摘要

Weather forecasts based on temperature, wind speed and relative humidity are very important attributes in agriculture sector as well as many industries which largely depend on the weather condition. Therefore, having accurate weather forecasting information may allow farmers to make good decision on managing their farm. Soft computing is an innovative approach to construct computationally intelligent systems that are supposed to processes humanlike expertise within a specific domain, adapt themselves and learn to do better in changing environments, and explain how they make decisions. The weather forecasting model based on soft computing is easy to implement and produces desirable forecasting result by training on the given dataset. The technique of soft computing such as BPNN, RBFN, PSONN and ANFIS are used in this study to test the performance in order to investigate which technique for weather forecasting is most effective and least of error. 720 hours of Johor Bahru weather data are used in this study in order to test their result of prediction based on MSE and RMSE. Besides, the experiment regarding the effect of different input nodes which applies tapped delay line method and different hidden nodes are also used to investigate whether previous data affects the performance. The result shows that ANFIS with input temperature, humidity, wind speed, weather condition(t), and weather condition(t-1) with the previous data will give the lowest MSE and RMSE, 7.0853e-3 and 8.4174e-2 consequence than other soft computing approaches.
机译:基于温度,风速和相对湿度的天气预报是农业部门以及许多很大程度上取决于天气条件的行业的重要属性。因此,拥有准确的天气预报信息可以使农民在管理农场方面做出正确的决定。软计算是一种创新的方法,用于构建计算智能系统,该系统应在特定领域内处理类似人的专业知识,适应自身并学会在不断变化的环境中做得更好,并解释他们如何做出决策。基于软计算的天气预报模型易于实现,并且通过在给定的数据集上进行训练可以产生理想的天气预报结果。为了研究哪种天气预报技术最有效且误差最小,在本研究中使用了BPNN,RBFN,PSONN和ANFIS等软计算技术来测试性能。为了研究他们在MSE和RMSE的基础上的预测结果,本研究使用720小时的新山天气数据。此外,还利用抽头延迟线法和不同隐藏节点对不同输入节点的影响进行了实验,以研究先前的数据是否会影响性能。结果表明,具有输入数据,温度,湿度,风速,天气条件(t)和天气条件(t-1)且具有先前数据的ANFIS将给出最低的MSE和RMSE,结果为7.0853e-3和8.4174e-2比其他软计算方法。

著录项

  • 作者

    Yen Wee Khun;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2010
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 {"code":"en","name":"English","id":9}
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