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Attribution Analysis of Spot Price in the Japanese Wholesale Electricity Market

机译:日本电力批发市场现货价格的归因分析

摘要

In electric power market, knowledge of risk factors is essential to the risk management on price variations. Thus, weperformed attribution analysis on the spot prices in the Japanese wholesale electricity market by a linear multipleregression model with economical and physical parameters in electricity trades as predictor variables. The analysis showsthat the standardized partial regression coefficients as the incidence degree to the spot prices are statistically significant.Furthermore, the week variation, the deepest snowfall and the CIF fuel price are determined as the variation factors of thespot prices at the rate of incidence degree of 40%, 30%and 20%, respectively. It is concluded that the analysis using theproposed model provides the major variation factors and their incidence degree to the spot prices.
机译:在电力市场中,对风险因素的了解对于价格变动的风险管理至关重要。因此,通过线性多元回归模型对日本电力批发市场中的现货价格进行了归因分析,该模型以电力贸易中的经济和物理参数作为预测变量。分析表明,标准偏回归系数作为现货价格的发生度具有统计学意义。此外,确定周变化,最大降雪量和CIF燃料价格作为现货价格在事件发生率上的变化因素。分别为40%,30%和20%。结论是,提出的模型分析提供了主要的变动因素及其对现货价格的影响程度。

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