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Monetary policy transmission in an open economy:new data and evidence from the United Kingdom

机译:开放经济中的货币政策传导:英国的新数据和证据

摘要

This paper constructs a new series of monetary policy surprises for the United Kingdom andudestimates their effects on macroeconomic and financial variables, employing a high-frequencyudidentification procedure. First, using local projections methods, we find that monetary policyudhas persistent effects on real interest rates and breakeven inflation. Second, employing ourudseries of surprises as an instrument in a SVAR, we show that monetary policy affects economicudactivity, prices, the exchange rate, exports, and imports. Finally, we implement a test ofudoveridentifying restrictions, which exploits the availability of the narrative series of monetaryudpolicy shocks computed by Cloyne and Huertgen (2014), and find no evidence that eitherudset of shocks contains any ‘endogenous’ response to macroeconomic variables.
机译:本文采用高频未识别程序,为英国构建了一系列新的货币政策意外措施,并估计了它们对宏观经济和金融变量的影响。首先,使用局部预测方法,我们发现货币政策对实际利率和盈亏平衡通胀具有持续的影响。第二,将意外惊喜作为SVAR的一种手段,我们证明货币政策会影响经济意外,价格,汇率,出口和进口。最后,我们实施了一个 udoveridentifying限制的测试,该测试利用了Cloyne和Huertgen(2014)计算出的一系列货币 udpolicy冲击叙事的可用性,并且没有发现证据表明这两个 udset冲击包含对“任何内生”的响应宏观经济变量。

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