A chance constrained transmission network expansion planning method with consideration of load and wind farm uncertainties

摘要

This paper proposes a chance constrained formulation to tackle the uncertainties of load and wind turbine generator in transmission network expansion planning. A combined Monte Carlo simulation/analytical probabilistic power flow analysis method is first presented to obtain the probability density function of wind turbine generator output. The paper then shows the development of the chance constrained formulation with the inclusion of the wind turbine generator probability density function and probabilistic power flow in the formulation. The proposed formulation is more computationally efficient and can deal with uncertainties in transmission network expansion planning. The power of the new method is shown through the application of the formulation to two test systems.