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Reliability analysis and failure prediction of construction equipment with Time Series Models

机译:时间序列模型的工程机械可靠性分析与故障预测

摘要

Reliability and availability of the equipment or plants used in construction and civil engineering field is significant issue for all stakeholders. Unexpected breakdown and repairs could cause serious consequences such as extra cost and project period extension. Therefore, it is necessary to study the reliability of the construction equipment and predict the failures in time with a reasonable degree of accuracy to prevent such losses. This paper adopts time series modelling methods to analyze and forecast the failures and other reliability characteristics such as the expected number of failures per interval and Mean time between failures (MTBF). It is found that time series models is a viable alternative that gives satisfactory results for both point and interval failure predictions in terms of its predictive performance for construction equipment reliability.
机译:对于所有利益相关者而言,用于建筑和土木工程领域的设备或工厂的可靠性和可用性是重要的问题。意外的故障和维修可能会导致严重的后果,例如额外费用和项目期限延长。因此,有必要研究建筑设备的可靠性并以合理的准确度及时预测故障,以防止这种损失。本文采用时间序列建模方法来分析和预测故障以及其他可靠性特征,例如每个间隔的预期故障数和平均故障间隔时间(MTBF)。发现时间序列模型是一种可行的替代方案,就其对建筑设备可靠性的预测性能而言,它可以为点和间隔故障预测提供令人满意的结果。

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    Fan Q; Fan HQ;

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  • 年度 2014
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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