Land-use changes and policy dimension driving forces in China : present, trend and future

摘要

China has extremely scarce land resources compared to the world average. There is an urgent need for studies of the current situation and the trends in land-use change and assessment of the performance of land policies in China. Assessment of land-use change has long been hindered by a lack of accurate and reliable data. This paper uses the data obtained from the national land surveys of 1996 and land-use change surveys from 1997 to 2008, to analyze changes in land use and the policy dimension driving forces related to the changes, especially cultivated land, forestry land, grassland, as well as developed land. The aim of this analysis will be to derive the physical, social and economical driving forces of those changes to grasp the trends in land-use change and the effects of land policies and to formulate strategies for the protection and sustainable use of agricultural land. The results indicate that, although the overall change in land use was not large, cultivated land was significantly reduced and developed land rapidly increased. A great deal of high quality cultivated land was changed to developed land and low quality cultivated land generated from unused land, which has resulted in a serious threat to food supplies in China. Predictions using the methods of linear extrapolation and a BP neural network indicate that it is impossible to keep to a target of 0.12 billion hectares of cultivated land in the future under the mode of economic development used between 1996 and 2008. The results also indicate that the implementation of the laws and regulations about controlling the developed land and preserving cultivated land had significant effects on changes in land use, especially cultivated land and developed land. The results suggest that the changes in land use are closely related to economic fluctuation and the enaction and implementation of these land policies had a little time lag for cultivated land protection. There is a pressing need for China to use its limited land resources more efficiently and effectively by enacting or re-enforcing the laws and regulations on land resources protection and economic development, not only for its own growing population, but also the world. Therefore, we must formulate strategies for the protection and sustainable use of agricultural land.