Why standard modelling and evaluation procedures are inadequate for assessing traffic congestion measures

摘要

As traffic congestion in Hong Kong worsens with the growing use of motor vehicles, to determine what has to be done to achieve and maintain an acceptable level of mobility for persons and goods becomes the subject of intense debate by economists, planners and politicians. Although many traffic congestion measures have been suggested and investigated, they are mainly confined to expansion of transport infrastructure and measures to make effective use of roads. New roads and public transport improvements may encourage increases in traffic and changes in the patterns of trips, while traffic management and regulation measures may in turn lead to suppression in road traffic. In order to evaluate these measures, it is required to make use of a transport model in assessing their traffic impacts. However, there are always discrepancies between the traffic forecasts and the actual flows on the roads. This paper investigates why the standard modelling and evaluation procedures currently used by the Hong Kong Government are inadequate for assessing the traffic congestion measures. Empirical evidence is given together with discussion on modelling and evaluation issues raised by the existence of suppressed/induced traffic.