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The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions

机译:热带气旋的温带过渡:预测挑战,当前的了解和未来的方向

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摘要

A significant number of tropical cyclones move into the midlatitudes and transform into extratropical cyclones.This process is generally referred to as extratropical transition (ET). During ET a cyclone frequently producesintense rainfall and strong winds and has increased forward motion, so that such systems pose a serious threatto land and maritime activities. Changes in the structure of a system as it evolves from a tropical to an extratropicalcyclone during ET necessitate changes in forecast strategies. In this paper a brief climatology of ET is givenand the challenges associated with forecasting extratropical transition are described in terms of the forecastvariables (track, intensity, surface winds, precipitation) and their impacts (flooding, bush fires, ocean response).The problems associated with the numerical prediction of ET are discussed. A comprehensive review of thecurrent understanding of the processes involved in ET is presented. Classifications of extratropical transitionare described and potential vorticity thinking is presented as an aid to understanding ET. Further sections discussthe interaction between a tropical cyclone and the midlatitude environment, the role of latent heat release,convection and the underlying surface in ET, the structural changes due to frontogenesis, the mechanismsresponsible for precipitation, and the energy budget during ET. Finally, a summary of the future directions forresearch into ET is given.
机译:大量热带气旋进入中纬度并转变为温带气旋,这一过程通常称为温带过渡(ET)。在ET期间,气旋经常产生强降雨和强风,并增加了向前运动,因此此类系统严重威胁着陆地和海上活动。在ET期间,系统结构的变化(从热带演变为热带气旋)需要更改预测策略。本文简要介绍了ET的气候,并根据预报变量(径迹,强度,地表风,降水)及其影响(洪水,灌木丛火灾,海洋响应)描述了与预报温带过渡有关的挑战。与ET的数值预测进行了讨论。介绍了对ET所涉过程的当前理解的全面综述。描述了温带过渡的分类,并提出了潜在的涡度思维,以帮助理解ET。进一步的章节讨论了热带气旋与中纬度环境之间的相互作用,潜热释放,对流和下层表面在ET中的作用,由前生引起的结构变化,负责降水的机理以及ET期间的能量收支。最后,总结了ET研究的未来方向。

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