An adaptation of a Markov chain model for antisubmarine warfare carrier aircraft

摘要

It is the purpose of this paper to develop a useful mathematical model of ASW aircraft availability. The increasing emphasis of systems studies dictates the use of accurate and representative models of the ASW systems. At present, many studies are using essentially the same models developed during World War II. This paper is an attempt to make use of advanced theory in a more powerful and flexible model and to make the use of the model practical and verifiable. The writer adapted the time homogeneous bivariate model as developed by F. C. Collins. This is a discrete time Markov process with a stochastic matrix of transition probabilities wherein the maintenance process is modeled as a pulsed input multiple server queue. The model was programmed in FORTRAN 63 on the CDC 1604 and then modified to allow for variability in the input parameters. Other modifications include an increase in the size of the model to accommodate a 16-aircraft squadron, the largest ASW squadron at present, and an explicit form solution to the maintenance queueing equations