Project Final Report:The Growing Nonproliferation Challenges in Southeast Asia -- Forecasting Emerging Capabilities and its Implications on the Control of Sensitive WMD-Related Technologies

摘要

Southeast Asian economies are experiencing rapid growth. Over the near to mid-term these economies will play a larger role in the development and trade of sensitive, high-tech commodities—both as customers and manufacturers. The increased prominence of dual-use commodities in the region suggests a need for a strengthened security framework to prevent possible proliferation of sensitive materials to programs, by both state and non-state actors, aimed at developing weapons of mass destruction (WMD).To better understand how the growth in Southeast Asia might affect global nonproliferation efforts, experts from the Middlebury Institute’s James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies reviewed and analyzed private industry projections as well as government forecasts, deciphering of relevant export statistics as a proxy for growing trends in the region. The project team also held discussions with regional industry experts to validate our initial finding related to which industries in Southeast Asia should be considered most relevant to the growth of dual-use goods in the region. Ultimately, the project team identified the following industries and sectors for special consideration: oil and gas; chemical industry; aerospace; nuclear energy; defense products; electronics; and, automotive manufacturing. The project report reviews the prospects of growth in each of these prominent dual-use sectors; CNS researchers also reviewed the growth of a number of disruptive and innovative sectors, namely additive manufacturing and on-line marketplaces.Based on our review of the relevant industries and the current state of trade management efforts in the region, the project team prepared recommendations aimed at regional authorities and international partners to strengthen the existing strategic trade management frameworks and develop systems better able to assess potential proliferation activities in the near to mid-term. These recommendations include: continue to monitor trade data and independent industry projections develop effective outreach to most prevalent dual-use industries; and, engaging industry early and often.