Ammunition deterioration during storage has considerable economic consequences. A reliable prediction model for the ammunition deterioration rate is necessary for long-term procurement and maintenance planning. A random effect growth curve analysis is employed to formulate a prediction model for ammunition deterioration rates in terms of concurrent characteristics such as depot condition and vendor information. The resultant prediction model can be used to determine the appropriate time for reorder or renovation of ammunition before the quality reaches unacceptable levels. A two-stage analysis is used to estimate parameters involved in the prediction model. Necessary estimation methods are discussed. An example is given to illustrate the implementation procedure of the prediction model suggested in this paper. Random Effect Logistic Regression Model, Deterioration Rate, A Two-Stage Estimation
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