A maritime domain or region contains a number w of nonhostile W (White) vessels of interest. Hostile R (Red) vessels enter the domain. The Rs are traveling through the domain toward targets. Overhead, friendly (Blue) sensors (S) patrol the domain and classify (perhaps incorrectly) detected vessels of interest as R or W. The misclassification of a W as an R is a false positive. An overhead sensor follows (or tracks) any vessel it classifies as R until it is relieved by another platform, perhaps a destroyer pair (DD). The overhead sensor is here assumed unable to detect and classify additional vessels while it is following a suspicious vessel; this may well be a somewhat pessimistic assumption, very possibly richer possibilities based on additional assets (such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)) are available, but loss of track may occur as well as misclassification. Deterministic and stochastic models are formulated and studied to evaluate the probability that Rs are successfully neutralized before reaching their destination. The model results quantify the effect of the resources and time needed to prosecute misclassified Ws (false positives) on the probability of successfully neutralizing R. The results indicate that the probability of neutralizing an R vessel is very sensitive to the false positive rate. Technologies, processes, and procedures that can decrease the false positive rate will increase the effectiveness of the Maritime Intercept Operation (MIO).-- p. iii.
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