PREDICTIVE FACTORS IN CONFLICT: ASSESSING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE BY ISRAEL ON IRAN USING A COMPUTER MODEL

摘要

The ability to predict the likelihood of conflict between two states based primarily on extrinsic factors is an arduous task, particularly given the complicated nature of analysis required and the large number of input factors involved. However, the benefits that may be gained from such an evaluation could reveal valuable insights for a decision-maker if seemingly small factors exhibit a large impact on a states prospect or ability to take action. A software model can be used to address the problem of aggregating and analyzing the information available to make a graphical model that facilitates quantitative analysis between different factors that are linked together. This thesis will look specifically at the elevating tensions between Israel and Iran with such a model to estimate whether the known factors can lend information to forecast the prospect of action by Israel as the two nations reach thresholds for combat. Specifically, this work will account for factors that would likely be present and perhaps predictive of Israel making a preemptive strike on Iran. The objective will be to create a product that can be used by an intelligence analyst as a briefing tool and to gauge its effectiveness as potential decision-making aid for commanders.