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Why insurgents fail examining post-World War II failed insurgencies utilizing the prerequisites of successful insurgencies as a framework

机译:叛乱者为何不以第二次世界大战后失败的保险为前提,以成功的保险的先决条件为框架

摘要

This thesis identifies five common characteristics of successful post-World War II insurgencies: (1) a cause to fight for, (2) local populace support, (3) weakness in the authority, (4) favorable geographic condictions, and (5) external support during the middle and later stages of an insurgency. This list of characteristics is incomplete for current and future insurgencies and a sixth characteristic, (6) an information advantage, is necessary. For this study, 72 post-World War II insurgencies are identified, of which 11 are classified as failed insurgencies. Of these failed insurgencies, 6 were selected for analysis using the above 6 charactersitics of an insurgency in order to determine any trends in their failure. The 6 selected failed insurgencies are: Greek Civil War, Philippines (HUK), Malayan Emergency, Kenya Emergency, Dhofar Rebellion, and Bolivia. This research determined that no one characteristic stands out as the key for defeating an insurgency. Counterinsurgent forces must consider and take into account all 6 charactersitics and plan accordingly. It is further determined that 3 of the characteristics: local populace support, external support, and information advantage must be reduced to a significate disadvantage for an insurgency in order for an insurgency to fail.
机译:本论文确定了成功的二战后叛乱的五个共同特征:(1)争斗的原因;(2)当地民众的支持;(3)权力薄弱;(4)有利的地理条件;(5)叛乱中后期的外部支持。对于当前和将来的保险而言,此特征列表不完整,并且第六个特征(6)具有信息优势是必要的。对于本研究,确定了72次第二次世界大战后的保险,其中11个被归类为失败的保险。在这些失败的保险中,使用上述6个叛乱特征选择了6个进行分析,以确定其失败的趋势。选择的6种失败的叛乱是:希腊内战,菲律宾(HUK),马来亚紧急状态,肯尼亚紧急状态,Dhofar起义和玻利维亚。这项研究确定,没有任何一个特征能成为打败叛乱分子的关键。平叛部队必须考虑并考虑所有6个特征,并据此计划。还确定了以下三个特征:本地民众的支持,外部支持和信息优势,必须减少到叛乱的显着劣势,才能使叛乱失败。

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    Zimmerman Frank H.;

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  • 年度 2007
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