An examination of high quality enlistees on a Recruiting district level.

摘要

Two distinct analytical techniques were used to developnodels to forecast the number of high quality non priorservice nales enlisting monthly in the U.S. Navy on arecruiting district level. The Box-Jenkins methodology wasapplied to a monthly time series of enlistments for theperiod Octcter 1978 to September 1983. A multiple regressioncausal model vas developed rased on the explanitory variables:numbers of unemployed, change in the rate of unemployment and military/civilian pay ratio. A combined timeseries/causal model was developed by applying theEox-Jer-kins technigue to the residuals of the multipleregression. These uodels were compared for predictivevalidity, fiecom&endations for further development of modelscontaining explicit time series elements are presented.