This study analyses the trend for initial detection times using both passive and active sonar during submarine-on-submarine operations. Specifically, it simulates a nuclear powered submarine (SSN) searching for a diesel submarine in an environment where the SSN has a speed advantage and active sonar detection ranges exceed passive sonar detection ranges. The simulation uses a mover-sensor discrete event application of SIMKIT, developed by Professor Buss, Arnold The simulation results show that initial detection times of a search follow an exponential trend as a function of SSN speed, diesel submarine speed, detection ranges, ping interval and detection probability. As a result, as detection ranges continue to decrease due to increases in sound quieting technology, initial detection times during a submarine search will increase exponentially. This can render a passive sonar prosecution ineffective when combating a modern diesel submarine. Should SSN use active sonar, initial detection times can be significantly reduced, especially if combined with an effective search path. The threat to the SSN of using active sonar can be mitigated by judicious consideration of ping interval and search speed with detection probability and active detection ranges. All values used to arrive at the conclusions stated are notional, and no classified information sources were consulted as part of this work.
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